The United States is undoubtedly one of the most important markets for the international development of Italian companies. The size of the American economy, the strength of domestic demand and its capacity to absorb high value-added goods make the US market a strategic destination for many Made in Italy supply chains.
In recent years, and increasingly in the current context, the economic relationship between Italy and the United States has progressively strengthened on ever more solid foundations. The USA remains the leading non-EU market for Italian exports and one of the most dynamic environments for companies oriented towards internationalisation.
At the same time, the global context is becoming more complex. The evolution of trade policies, geopolitical tensions and changes in global value chains are reshaping access conditions to international markets.
Within this framework, the US market represents not only a key commercial destination, but a strategic environment that requires Italian companies to make increasingly structured and informed decisions.
US MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO: GROWTH, INFLATION, RISKS AND TRADE
According to analyses by Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, despite renewed geopolitical risks, the US economy continues to show strong resilience compared to other advanced economies. GDP growth for 2026 is expected to remain moderate, with expansion around 2%.
Domestic demand remains one of the main drivers of the American economy, supported in part by significant investment programmes in infrastructure and technological innovation.
Alongside these positive elements, the macroeconomic scenario is still characterised by some sources of uncertainty. Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target levels and may rise further in the coming months, remaining close to 3% in 2026.
Monetary policy therefore remains cautious. Following the first tentative rate cuts last year, the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a prudent approach, monitoring the economy and prices to avoid new inflationary pressures.
For exporting companies, this scenario implies that pricing, investment and US market positioning decisions must be taken in a context of uncertainty that is no longer cyclical, but structural.
Meanwhile, trade policies are also evolving. In 2025, the United States introduced generalised tariffs on imports, with a base rate between 10% and 15% on numerous foreign goods, alongside specific measures for certain sectors.
These decisions have had an immediate impact on international trade. In the first nine months of 2025, global trade volumes recorded year-on-year growth of +4.5%, partly due to shipments brought forward at the beginning of the year before the new tariffs came into force.
In the medium term, however, the strengthening of protectionist policies could increase trade volatility and affect the organisation of global value chains.
In this context, access to the US market requires Italian companies to adopt a more selective and proactive approach, focused on managing commercial risk and building a stable long-term presence.
ITALY - USA: ECONOMIC RELATIONS AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK
Economic relations between Italy and the United States are strong and well established over time. The American market is now one of the main outlets for Italian companies and one of the most relevant environments for the development of international investments.
In 2025, according to ISTAT data, trade between the two countries exceeded €105 billion, supported by growth in Italian exports to the United States, which increased by over 7% year-on-year.
Sales of Italian goods on the US market account for 10.8% of total Italian exports, confirming the USA as the second-largest destination market and the leading one outside the European Union.
In 2025, the trade balance remained strongly positive for Italy, thanks to high value-added sectors, although slightly reduced compared to the previous year due to the significant increase in imports of US goods.
The link between the two economies is also evident in terms of investment. The United States represents the primary foreign destination for Italian companies, with around 3,050 Italian-controlled firms operating in the country and employing over 135,000 people.
At the same time, more than 2,500 US-owned companies operate in Italy, employing approximately 370,000 people, highlighting a high level of integration between the two economic systems.
REGULATIONS AND ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES
Trade between Italy and the United States is part of the broader framework of economic relations between the European Union and the United States. Although there is no specific bilateral free trade agreement between Italy and the USA, a system of regulatory and fiscal instruments has been developed over time to facilitate trade and investment between the two economies.
One of the most significant elements is the Convention for the Avoidance of Double Taxation on Income, signed in 1999 and subsequently updated in 2009, which prevents double taxation for companies and investors operating in both countries. This is complemented by the FATCA (Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act) agreement, introduced in 2014 to strengthen cooperation between tax authorities and improve international financial transparency.
In recent years, institutional attention has also focused on the evolution of trade policies and the impact of tariff measures. In this context, in 2025 a permanent Tariff Task Force was established, promoted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with the aim of monitoring tariff implementation and supporting Italian companies in the event of new trade barriers.
Alongside the regulatory framework, companies can rely on an active institutional network in the United States, including the Embassy, Consulates, the ICE Agency and Italian Chambers of Commerce in the USA, which play an important role in facilitating economic relations and promoting the presence of Italian companies on the American market.