Import-Export: prospects amid geopolitical risks, technological transition and evolving markets in 2026

International trade is one of the main indicators of global economic health. In 2026, however, its role is set in a different context than in the past: not so much as a driver of growth, but as a sphere that more clearly reflects the ongoing economic, geopolitical, and technological transformations.

Businesses are operating in a scenario where trade flows do not come to a halt but become more selective and less homogeneous across world regions. Value chains are being reorganised, industrial policies are regaining prominence, and government decisions on trade directly influence the direction of import-export flows.

According to the December 2025 Macroeconomic Scenario by Intesa Sanpaolo's Research Department, 2026 falls within a transition phase marked by positive but slowing global growth and less buoyant trade dynamics. In this context, understanding the evolution of key geographies and strategic sectors of international trade becomes essential to guide companies’ internationalisation strategies.

A LESS DYNAMIC GLOBAL TRADE OPENS A PHASE OF TRADE FLOW REALLOCATION
 

According to WTO data, 2025 saw merchandise trade volumes grow by +2.4%, but global trade is expected to slow significantly in 2026. The most recent estimates suggest a limited increase of just +0.5%, a clear downgrade from earlier forecasts.

The 2025 recovery was driven largely by temporary factors. In the first half of the year, many importers—particularly in the United States—brought forward purchases in anticipation of new tariffs, pushing trade up by +4.9% year-on-year in H1. Additionally, strong global spending on AI-related goods, from semiconductors to servers, significantly boosted trade growth.

In 2026, these drivers are expected to fade. Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department highlights that the combination of slower economic growth and more restrictive trade policies reduces international trade’s ability to act as a global economic engine. Services are gaining importance, while goods trade suffers from a more fragmented and less flexible context.

UNITED STATES: ECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE UNCERTAINTY
 

The US economy continues to show stronger-than-expected resilience, supported by investments in digital infrastructure and AI-related technologies. At the same time, internal demand is becoming more heterogeneous: spending among higher-income groups remains solid, while middle- to lower-income households show signs of weakening.

Externally, the trade environment remains highly uncertain. From 2025, the introduction of broad-based tariffs on imports has directly impacted international flows. In the short term, these measures incentivised front-loading; in 2026, however, the risk lies in weaker foreign demand and greater trade volatility.

For European and Italian companies, the United States remains a strategic market, but one increasingly exposed to exogenous shocks and a less predictable trade regime.

CHINA: REBALANCING GROWTH AND SHIFTING TRADE ROUTES
 

According to Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, China will face a more structural slowdown in 2026, with GDP growth estimated at around 4.5%. The property sector remains a source of fragility, while stimulus measures focus on technology, digitalisation, and high value-added investment.

Chinese exports are proving resilient, supported by early order placements and a weaker exchange rate. At the same time, a reallocation of flows is underway: part of the country’s overcapacity is being redirected to Europe, Asia, and Africa, offsetting declining sales to the United States.

This dynamic intensifies competitive pressure on European markets, directly impacting growth and inflation, with significant implications for manufacturing businesses.

EUROPE: FACING LESS DYNAMIC TRADE AND GROWING COMPETITIVE PRESSURE

According to Intesa Sanpaolo, in the new year the eurozone will maintain modest growth, with GDP expected to increase by 1.1%, held back by weak external demand and Asian competition. Net exports remain a drag on growth, while investment in machinery and equipment shows signs of gradual recovery.

According to ICE data, the EU remains a key player in global trade, accounting for 16.3% of global goods and services exports in 2024, excluding intra-EU trade.
In recent years, services have strengthened in particular, while the share of goods exports has slightly declined. Monthly data for the first 11 months suggest goods exports may have grown by 3% in 2025.

Some sectors show greater resilience. Pharmaceuticals now represent nearly 12% of EU exports and recorded an average annual growth rate of 8.6% over the past decade. Conversely, sectors like automotive and certain mechanical engineering segments remain more challenged, impacted by the technological transition and trade policy uncertainty.

ITALY: GRADUAL EXPORT RECOVERY AND RISING IMPORTS IN AN INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

In 2026, Italy is set to experience a gradual recovery in foreign trade, with improving exports but more dynamic imports. Italian GDP is expected to accelerate moderately, growing by an estimated +0.8%, supported by non-residential investments. On the foreign trade front, Italian exports are coming off historically high levels: in 2025, goods exports may exceed €640 billion, up from the previous year.

Germany’s slowdown—Italy’s main trading partner—has significantly affected flows, but 2025 may close with export growth of around 2% to that market. Globally, some leading sectors such as automotive and fashion have shown weakness, while others—pharmaceuticals and transport equipment in particular—have continued to sustain foreign sales. In fact, macroeconomic forecasts point to modest export growth of around 0.2% in 2026, with a reacceleration to 2% expected in 2027.

On the import side, the moderate recovery in domestic demand and investment tends to support more dynamic growth compared to exports.

A key support factor is the decline in energy prices from previous peaks. Lower energy import costs help keep the trade balance in positive territory, freeing up resources for intermediate and capital goods. As a result, the trade surplus remains one of the structural strengths of Italy’s economy, estimated at around 2.0% of GDP.

However, several risk factors must be monitored, such as currency fluctuations, commodity price trends, and geopolitical tensions, which could quickly affect import values and the trade surplus.

STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATIONS RESHAPING GLOBAL TRADE FLOWS

In 2026, import-export flows are increasingly influenced by structural factors beyond global economic cycles. The technological transition, value chain evolution, raw material management, and persistent geopolitical risks are profoundly reshaping the geography of global trade. In this context, adaptability becomes a key factor for companies’ competitiveness in international markets.

Technological transition and Artificial Intelligence

Investment in digitalisation and AI is increasingly affecting global production structures and trade flows, with varying impacts across economic regions.

According to Intesa Sanpaolo's macroeconomic scenario, AI’s impact on productivity may differ widely: cautious estimates suggest an annual GDP contribution below 0.1%, while the most optimistic forecasts go up to 1.3% over a decade; the ECB estimates an average annual benefit of around 0.35% in the eurozone.

In the short term, effects are mainly concentrated upstream—digital infrastructure, data centres, industrial automation—with the United States in a leading position.
In the medium term, AI diffusion may drive reshoring and a reorganisation of global value chains, directly affecting businesses' import-export strategies.

Global value chains, reshoring and trade regionalisation

Rising geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions are pushing many companies to rethink their supply chains, prioritising resilience and reliability. Reshoring and near-shoring are emerging as strategic responses to reduce dependence on distant or risk-prone suppliers.

This leads to lower elasticity in international trade and greater regionalisation of flows. In this context, Europe and Italy could benefit from the relocation of high value-added production, particularly in technology, green, and pharmaceutical sectors. Companies investing in automation, digitalisation and sustainability are better positioned to meet the demand generated by these new production paradigms.

Raw materials, hard assets and energy transition

Raw material dynamics remain a key factor in trade flows. Geopolitical uncertainty supports demand for hard assets and energy and industrial commodities, with metals like gold and copper at historically high levels. In 2026, Brent oil prices are expected to stabilise between $50 and $70 per barrel, while natural gas prices show divergent trends between the US and Europe.

At the same time, the energy transition and growing environmental sustainability focus are increasingly influencing investment and sourcing decisions.
Normalising energy prices and the spread of low-impact technologies help ease inflationary pressures and support the competitiveness of European businesses. For companies, investing in energy efficiency, circular economy and environmental certifications is becoming an enabling factor for accessing foreign markets.

Geopolitical risks and the reallocation of trade flows

The landscape remains shaped by major geopolitical risks. Continued conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions over Taiwan, and developments in US trade policy could rapidly disrupt import-export flows in 2026. In this context, the phenomenon of Chinese trade diversion also plays a role: the redirection of overcapacity to Europe and other markets increases the presence of Chinese goods, with potential effects on European growth and inflation and competitive pressure for local companies.

Overall, 2026 is emerging as a year of transition, where the resilience of advanced economies and businesses will be tested by new competitive pressures and structural changes in trade flows. Digitalisation, sustainability and the ability to manage uncertainty stand out as key strategic levers to navigate an increasingly complex yet opportunity-rich international landscape.

ITALIAN COMPANIES AND IMPORT-EXPORT: COMPETITIVE LEVERS IN A MORE SELECTIVE SCENARIO

In light of ongoing structural changes, 2026 will be a complex but not opportunity-free year for Italian businesses active in international markets. In a context of moderate global growth and less dynamic trade flows, the ability to stand out increasingly depends on the quality of strategic choices and the speed of adaptation to shifting scenarios, rather than sheer volume expansion.

For companies, several competitive levers play a crucial role in translating the current scenario into tangible actions:

• Digitalisation and Artificial Intelligence as operational tools to enhance productivity, process efficiency and management of international supply chains;
• Diversification of export markets, to reduce dependence on areas more exposed to regulatory uncertainty or growing competitive pressure;
• Sustainability and production quality as distinguishing factors in trade relationships and international buyer choices;
• Partnerships, networks and supply chains to strengthen financial and organisational structures and present a more robust and credible profile in foreign markets.

RISKS, TARIFFS AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

In addition to growth levers, the 2026 context demands careful risk management. The evolution of US trade policy—after the front-loading phase that temporarily supported flows in 2025—may lead to weaker foreign demand for Italy, with more pronounced effects in sectors most exposed to that market.

In this scenario, businesses’ resilience hinges on their ability to integrate commercial, financial and organisational dimensions. Strengthening presence in alternative markets, investing in product and process innovation, developing digital skills, and enhancing online channels become strategic choices to mitigate uncertainty. At the same time, a structured approach to managing currency, credit and supply chain risks, coupled with continuous monitoring of target markets and regulatory developments, enables businesses to face a transforming global landscape more securely.

Ultimately, Italian companies can turn the challenges of 2026 into selective growth opportunities in international markets. The key lies in continuously interpreting the scenario, investing in technology and sustainability, and building strategic alliances capable of enhancing competitive positioning within the new geography of import-export flows.

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