In 2025, international trade is transforming due to new geopolitical tensions. Exporting is no longer just about competitiveness, but about the strategic ability to adapt.
As highlighted recently in the macroeconomic insight into import–export trends, Italian companies have faced an uncertain environment due to new trade barriers and an ongoing redefinition of global value chains.
In particular, the intensification of US tariffs, the volatility of emerging markets, and the erosion of trust in the dollar are reshaping the traditional dynamics of internationalisation.
Italy maintains a position of relative stability thanks to moderate economic growth and a versatile production system, with areas of excellence in high-value-added sectors.
However, external pressure demands a new approach: To stay competitive, Italian businesses must redefine their export strategies by focusing on diversification, innovation, and resilience.
With support from the Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo, we analyse the key trends that emerged in the first half of 2025, offering tools and operational insights for planning the second half of the year with a strategic vision.
GLOBAL SCENARIO: MORE RISKS, FEWER CERTAINTIES
According to the macroeconomic outlook published by Intesa Sanpaolo in June 2025, global trade is slowing down, hindered by three key factors:
- Rising tensions in the Middle East.
- Restrictive US trade policies, with average tariffs rising to 16%.
- Declining confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency.
Despite these headwinds, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global growth of 3% in 2025, with a possible mild recovery in 2026 (although the outlook remains fragile).
According to McKinsey, global trade could grow by USD 12 trillion by 2035, reaching USD 45 trillion. However, over the same period, geopolitical fragmentation could cause a loss of up to USD 3 trillion in potential global trade growth.
There are three possible scenarios:
- Baseline: Stable growth, with global GDP increasing by 2.7% annually.
- Diversification: Companies reduce reliance on a few suppliers, resulting in around USD 1 trillion in lost growth potential.
- Fragmentation: Tariffs up to 60% between geopolitically distant economies, with a potential loss of USD 3 trillion in growth.
By 2035, 31% of global trade could shift from one trade corridor to another, with significant impacts on sectors such as electronics, textiles, and machinery. This highlights the need to anticipate changes and adapt to a more fragmented and less predictable trade paradigm..
USA: PROTECTIONISM AND FISCAL UNCERTAINTY
In 2025, the US trade policy turned towards protectionism. The introduction of over 115 restrictive measures has changed existing balances and affected long-standing partners like the European Union.
According to Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, average tariffs have risen to 16% and have affected the competitiveness of foreign products, prompting many US companies to reconsider their supply chains.
At the same time, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) tax package has fuelled concerns about the future of US public finances. Forecasts indicate public debt could rise to 200% of GDP by 2055, with consequences for inflation and investment.
For Italian businesses, this means greater difficulty accessing the US market in terms of both costs and regulatory uncertainty.
In light of these dynamics, Italy must strengthen its presence through digital channels, local networks, and bilateral agreements. It must focus on sectors with stable demand, such as pharmaceuticals, agri-food, and industrial technology.
EUROPE: RESILIENCE WITH LIMITS
The European continent is approaching 2025 at two speeds.
On the one hand, there is modest but stable growth: Eurozone GDP is expected to grow at an average rate of around 1% in 2025–26.
On the other hand, political uncertainty and trade tensions continue to weigh on business and consumer confidence.
Reaching a trade agreement could help reduce uncertainty, but the increase in tariffs to 15% is still expected to act as a brake. The return of US protectionism has also affected historic allies like the EU, prompting the European Commission to promote a programme of strategic autonomy, including new trade agreements with India, ASEAN, and Mercosur.
In Germany, Europe’s “locomotive”, early signs of recovery are emerging thanks to a fiscal plan aimed at revitalising infrastructure and digital investment. Nonetheless, the risk of a slowdown remains if global demand fails to recover strongly.
France, meanwhile, faces a more fragile domestic context, with weak consumption and political uncertainty.
For Italian companies, the European market remains the primary point of reference, especially for those with an established commercial network. However, adaptation is essential: Investment in digitalisation, strengthening product and supply chain sustainability, and seizing opportunities offered by European recovery plans will be key.
ITALY: INTERNAL STABILITY AND EXTERNAL CHALLENGES
Amid international instability and new trade barriers, Italy stands out for the relative stability of its economic system. According to Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, GDP growth is estimated at 0.7% for 2025, with further increases expected in 2026.
Key drivers include domestic demand and public investment funded by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR).
However, exports represent a weak link in this scenario. The combined effect of US tariffs, Germany’s slowdown, and fragmented global routes is weighing on Italian manufacturing firms.
If implemented effectively, the PNRR could contribute over 0.4 percentage points to 2026 growth, providing resources to modernise infrastructure, digitise production processes, and boost international competitiveness.
Nonetheless, some vulnerabilities remain, including fragmented supply chains, dependence on a few markets, and the need to innovate commercial processes. This is where the challenge of the second half of 2025 will be decided.
LOOKING AHEAD: ANTICIPATING CHANGE, STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE
According to the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the growing fragmentation of the multilateral system is now one of the most serious threats to the stability of international trade. In 2024 alone, more than 3,000 new trade restrictions were introduced, including tariffs, export controls, and non-tariff measures.
The gradual erosion of multilateral rules once guaranteed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) particularly exposes developing countries, which could suffer a contraction of up to 33% in goods trade and permanent GDP losses of more than 5%.
For Italian businesses, this means increased cost volatility, growing regulatory misalignment between markets, and an increasingly urgent need to enhance adaptability. In a context where medium-to long-term planning is undermined by unpredictable variables, strengthening operational resilience becomes a strategic necessity.
The ICC emphasises that tariffs—while designed to protect domestic industry—have not proved effective long term. Businesses that responded to higher trade barriers with investment and diversification strategies showed better performance than those that remained tied to traditional models.
The most critical issues identified by the ICC are:
- Rising operating costs across the supply chain.
- Loss of competitiveness in global markets.
- Difficulty in planning long-term investments.
PREPARING FOR CHANGE, BUILDING COMPETITIVENESS
The second half of 2025 represents a crucial window for the future of Italian exports. The challenges are complex, but opportunities exist for companies ready to seize them.
Over the years, Italy’s productive fabric has shown extraordinary adaptability by combining manufacturing tradition, creativity, and innovation.
To navigate global trade uncertainty, companies will need to:
- Act with strategic vision.
- Strengthen internal capabilities, including training on international regulations and scenarios.
- Invest in digital tools and adaptive technologies to simulate and respond in real time to regulatory and commercial changes.
- Establish partnerships with solid financial institutions able to support international growth with tailored solutions.
The role of banks, especially those with a consolidated international presence, will be central to guiding businesses in their expansion abroad.
Providing advisory services, financial solutions, and trade finance tools means, now more than ever, playing an active role in building a stronger and more sustainable Italian export model.
Italy has all it needs to be a leading player in the new global trade paradigm.
What’s required is a shift from a defensive mindset to one of leadership, anticipating trends, building resilience, and turning uncertainty into a competitive advantage.