Import-Export: 2025 prospects amid tariffs and uncertainty

Foreign trade is a fundamental pillar of the Italian economy. Made in Italy, synonymous with quality and innovation, has established a strong presence in international markets over the years, with exports contributing approximately 32% of GDP. However, 2024 has highlighted vulnerabilities in global trade, with signs of slowdown posing new challenges for the coming year.

This article analyses the macroeconomic import and export landscape using data from Intesa Sanpaolo’s Research Department, delving into the trends that shaped 2024 and the outlook for 2025, with particular attention to the risk factors that could impact international trade and Italian exports.

GLOBAL TRADE IN 2024: SIGNS OF WEAKNESS AND STRUCTURAL FACTORS
 

2024 proved to be a complex transition year for global trade, marked by uneven growth and economic uncertainties that weighed on the exports of advanced economies. According to estimates from the World Trade Organization, global trade is expected to have grown by just 2,3% in 2024, well below the historical average.

The Eurozone, in particular, faced difficulties in reviving its exports, hindered by both cyclical and structural factors. On the one hand, foreign demand was weaker than expected due to cyclical reasons; on the other, the downsizing of energy-intensive industries and China’s increasing competitiveness in key sectors further eroded European market shares.

Eurozone goods exports showed signs of fragility throughout 2024. According to the ECB’s Economic Bulletin, export growth stood at just 1,5% year-on-year, driven mainly by the services sector and, to a lesser extent, by manufacturing. Global trade flows remained weak, hindered by a slow recovery in exchanges, exacerbated by political uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China.

European businesses, already struggling with rising post-2022 energy costs, faced an increasingly competitive global market, with China offloading its excess production capacity onto foreign markets, driving down prices and putting European industries under pressure.

In Italy, foreign trade experienced fluctuations. Following a stagnation phase in 2023, exports saw modest recovery in the first half of 2024 but lacked sustained momentum. Trade with Germany, Italy’s main commercial partner, slowed due to the structural weakness of German manufacturing, which saw a 0,2% GDP contraction. On the other hand, the United States remained a key market for Italian exports, accounting for around 10,4% of the total, although the outcome of the presidential elections introduced new risks.

2025 OUTLOOK: NEW CHALLENGES FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE
 

Looking ahead to 2025, international trade forecasts remain cautious. While global economic growth is expected to stay at similar levels to 2024, geopolitical factors and US trade policies could significantly impact global exchanges.

The Eurozone is projected to grow at a modest pace in 2025, with GDP expected to increase by 0,9%. Italian exports could be affected by the combined impact of weaker foreign demand and potential trade restrictions imposed by the new US administration. Forecasts for Italian exports have been revised downwards, with expected growth of just 0,6%, while imports are anticipated to rebound by 1,7%. The recovery of exports will largely depend on the resilience of the US market and the ability of Italian businesses to diversify their trade destinations.

Another key element for 2025 will be China’s role in global trade. The country is experiencing an economic slowdown, with GDP expected to grow by 4,6% in 2025, down from the estimated 4,9% in 2024.

The introduction of new US tariffs on Chinese goods could trigger retaliatory measures, affecting the entire global trade chain. For European and Italian businesses, this could mean increased price pressure and heightened competition in key markets.
 

US TARIFFS: WHAT IS THE IMPACT ON ITALIAN AND EUROPEAN EXPORTS?
 

One of the central themes for global trade in 2025 will be the potential introduction of selective US tariffs. The election of Donald Trump as US president has introduced uncertainty regarding American trade strategies: while no immediate universal tariffs are expected, targeted protectionist measures could impact specific European export sectors, with direct repercussions on German and Italian manufacturing.

The new US administration has already signalled its intention to strengthen trade protectionism, with possible consequences for Europe. In a scenario where restrictive measures are applied to key sectors such as automotive, industrial machinery, and chemicals, Italian exports could face significant setbacks.

Germany, the leading European exporter to the US, is particularly vulnerable to this dynamic, given that German exports to the US account for approximately 16% of total exports outside the euro area, while Italian exports make up around 10%. A slowdown in German trade could have indirect effects on Italy, which supplies advanced components to the German manufacturing industry. Additionally, the potential introduction of targeted tariffs could hit key Made in Italy sectors, affecting the competitiveness of Italian businesses.

However, a positive factor is Italy’s increasing geographical diversification in exports, which in recent years has expanded its presence in Asian and South American markets, reducing dependence on transatlantic trade dynamics.

2025: A YEAR OF TRANSITION
 

2025 is set to be a transition year for international trade. While no major shocks are expected, import-export growth is likely to be modest and subject to significant risk factors. The Eurozone, and Italy in particular, will have to navigate an evolving trade environment, characterised by uncertain global demand and developing protectionist policies.

Italian and European businesses will need to strengthen their competitiveness through more diversified internationalisation strategies, investments in innovation, and greater resilience to global dynamics. Adaptability will be key to tackling the challenges of 2025 in a context where global trade is increasingly influenced by interconnected political and economic factors.

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